Asking for a cohort. How many different sellers, or one seller with different names, are (or is) pushing a coffee cup with the design above?
But the problem is a U.S. one. Traffic to this blog jumped 313% today, thanks to Hacker News pointing to Online Sports Betting is for Losers, which was posted two and a half weeks ago. Visitors came from 70 countries.
New habits start easy. I now start my day with a new post here using Wordland. I name the post after the day and start tweeting—but on my own blog rather than social media.
Knicks fans know how OKC feels right now. The state of Indiana would like to thank the NBA players who called Tyrese Haliburton the "most overrated" player in the league. Halliburton just won the opening game of the NBA finals for the Pacers with less than a second left against the highly favored Thunder, in Oklahoma City. Doing that shit is a habit he has. Give it to him: the dude is clutch.
About face. The only fix for my face showing up on social media when I promote a blog post that has no image is to get a new theme for the blog—specifically one that I edit in block rather than classic mode. (That's WordPress talk.) So I am learning block editing on a practice blog. Stay tuned for the change.
Look at slide 30. What's not there is personal AI that gives you ways to get control over the data in your life: what you own, where you've been, what you subscribe to (on what, how, and on what terms), how you save/invest/spend, what you've agreed to, how you are being followed and by what, who you know and how, facts about your health and fitness, all your obligations. There are apps and tools for some of that stuff, but not much of it is integrated, or integratable by you for your own purposes.
Look at Apple Intelligence. The guesswork in your Apple Mail app about what matters to you is often wildly speculative and off-base. Most of what Apple Intelligence seems to be for (or at least what salespeople showed off to my wife in the Apple Store where she bought her new iPhone 16 the other day) is for helping you buy shit, not helping you manage the shit you have. Ask Siri to turn off notifications from one of the apps on your phone, and see what happens. You'll get something like "I don't understand the question," or worse, "Would you like me to ask ChatGPT?"
We can only get personal control with personal AI. Your AI. Simple as that.
Cause for pessimism. There is a stat in basketball called VORP, for Value Over Replacement Player. I’d like one for coaches: VORC, for Value Over Replacement Coach. If such a stat existed, Tom Thibodeau’s VORC would be pretty high. Minnesota and Chicago both fell after he left. Bonus link: Nate Silver, Knicks fan, Thibs non-fan.
Today’s rollback link. Podcasts, Wallcasts, and Paycasts, from last October. A pull-quote from a comment: “Paywalls are going up everywhere, as producers in the shittily named content business try to get ahead of Peak Subscription, and in the process are killing the open Internet, which is biggest farm ever created for geese that lay golden eggs.”
It’s all about geometry and packaging. Several million tech years ago, in the late ’80s and early ’90s, I did a lot of work for Hitachi Semiconductor and the collection of chip makers putting out (or planning at the time to put out) Sun Microsystems‘ SPARC CPU. The one I learned the most from was Hitachi, which at the time was making the microprocessors embedded in automobile brake systems and first-generation flash memory. Scientists from deep inside the company would make presentations predicting what would happen across the decades to come, just based on inevitable progress in chip design, function integration, and manufacture. I’ve watched, across those decades, how their predictions came true. One prediction both they and I made at the time was that the fabs required were beyond Hitachi’s scope, and that one or two companies not among the leaders back then would end up making the chips and products that ordinary people would pocket and use to vastly extend their agency in both the physical and digital worlds. The three most important companies doing that today are TSMC, Samsung, and Apple. I share all this to tee up Beyond 2nm: Apple’s A20 chip to introduce new packaging breakthrough, in 9to5mac. When when you read about TSMC at that link, recall this one-liner from Jerry Sanders when he ran AMD: “Real men have fabs.”
Whatever, it's complicated. The Narrow Path Needs a Floorplan: What Happens When You Feed Tristan Harris’s Vision Into the Meta-layer. The path is between the DYSTOPIA of centralized control and the CHAOS of "unchecked decentralized" whatever. The path is called COORDINATION, and involves "global clarity & coordinated action," which is about "co-governance—a path where humanity chooses structure, responsibility, and shared safeguards before it’s too late." The COORDINATION involves five Desirable Properties (DPs): —Safe and Ethical AI, —Community-based AI Governance, —AI Containment, —Trust and Transparency, and —Adaptive Governance. Contribute here, it says. Contributions are AI-assisted, for what that's worth. Or not. I'm posting this for the people I know who think this kind of guidance works. Hell, maybe it does. I'd rather have just one invention that mothers a necessity for any or all of it.
Imagine if, in the early '80s, we got decentralized mainframes rather than PCs. Long as we're vetting abstract ideals, you I give you DAIS, the Decentralized AI Society. I'd rather have personal AI. That way we would be independent, rather than "decentralized" or "distributed." (That last link is from eleven years ago: way ahead of its time.)
Anybody have one yet? I want one of these, which seems to be sold by many different companies, all advertising on Facebook.
“Agentiality,” a measure of relationship: According to GLIA Foundation, an AI system’s “agentiality” is the degree to which it is actually authorized to ably represent the end user by serving as “their” agent. It can be seen as a measure of authentic human relationship, progressing from treating humans as “users” of whatever service a provider may offer, through increasingly faithful levels of care, fidelity, and loyalty to the user, as explained in this book and article. This dimension is generally neglected but is essential to “whom it serves” and to democratic freedoms. Passive “alignment,” as provided by a third party who is not bound to faithfully serve the interests of the end user, is insufficient to ensure more than a shadow of that.
I would rather that paragraph say person or individual rather than "end user." As Chris Locke put it in The Cluetrain Manifesto* way back in 1999, we are not seats or eyeballs or consumers or end users. we are human beings and our reach exceeds your grasp. **deal with it.**Having our own AI agents, working for us, will finally make that dealing happen. More here. *Currently offline, so that points to the Cluetrain page at Archive.org. The original will be back up soon.
About a face. The problem Dave talks about here (my face pointlessly appearing with social media posts) is due to using an old theme that needs to be replaced. Hoping to make that happen this week. (The issue involves the "featured image" feature, as Dave points out in that post. When writing in Wordland, as I am now. I don't specify a featured image, so the social medium picks up my face for some reason. Dave suggests a fix, which the WordPress folks will catch when they read this.)
What happened to that IBM, no Microsoft, monopoly? Some U.S. stats: Apple mobile phone share: 58.87%; tablet share, 54.43%; laptop share: 17.1%. (via stat counter.com)
Finals thoughts. I'm a lifelong Knicks fan who felt that the Knicks and the Pacers are (or were) so evenly matched that the difference would be coaching. And that's why I thought the Knicks would win game six in Indianapolis last night, and close the series with game seven in New York. Tom Thibodeau did such a great job game-planing against the Pacers for game five that I thought the Knicks were good for the rest. Alas, the Pacers are a bit better. And maybe really the best in the East. They did take out the Cavaliers, which is non-trivial. But the Knicks are still among the top few teams in the league, and no worse than third in the East. So I want them to hold the team together for next year. NBA teams aren't just a collection of "assets." They are men who play for each other. Don't discount what you've got. Oh, and work on offense. Get KAT more involved. Let Robinson keep improving. You know the rest. Meanwhile, I am in Indiana, which is crazy about basketball and the Pacers. So, in respect for my neighbors, I'd like to see the Pacers win the finals. But I'm betting that the Thunder take the series in five.
Perhaps unless it's a free used 747. Adam Tooze: When will America's economy stall? "When this happens the economy really will lose all growth momentum…It is hard to credit, but Trump in his second term seems genuinely committed to the idea that ordinary Americans should have less stuff."
For most of World War II, Pop worked in Alaska, mostly on trestle construction for the Alaska Railroad. But he hated being away from the action, so he enlisted again, at age 35 in early 1944, and was given the rank of corporal, with credit for his prior service. He served in the Signal Corps, where his main job was running communication lines along the ground toward enemy lines under cannon fire in advance of the next day’s action. His only injury was damaged hearing from friendly cannon blasts. His last job in Europe after the end of the war was as a telephone operator in Eisenhower’s headquarters in France.
After the war, he was a proud member of the American Legion, and marched in all our 4th of July parades in Maywood, New Jersey, our hometown from the late 1940s until my sister (the Navy veteran) and I grew up.
Pop was much more than a soldier, of course. He was as good a father as a kid could wish for, and a great husband, uncle, son, brother, friend, fisherman, hunter, builder of things, and much else. He passed in 1979, but I still miss him every day.
Back in 2008, while working for a startup, Hugh MacLeod and I contrasted the distributed, decentralized, participatory tech development culture of the time with the centralized, top-down kind that had dominated for the prior few decades—and, let’s face it, still does today. Hugh drew the cartoon above to illustrate what we thought was going on at the time, though it wasn’t. The startup is long gone, but the labels are still useful, and the conflict persists.
As the medium becomes the message, we find ourselves living inside a civilisation that equates alignment with truth and aggregation with progress. This systemic bias pushes us toward a brittle form of self‑determination: we pursue agency through domination of the variable we can measure, ignoring the variables we cannot. The inevitable result is extraction—of carbon sinks, of cultural memory, of psychological attention—followed by backlash, polarisation, and institutional corrosion.
The tragedy is structural, not moral. When the channel allows only single notes, the symphony dies unheard.
3. A Third Evolution: Machine‑Assisted Deliberation
Large language models and agentic systems arrive as the first tools capable of scaling conversation rather than broadcast. Instead of choosing between headlines, we can invite the corpus of human knowledge into the room as a listening partner—summarising, translating, mapping disagreement, and surfacing neglected vantage points at a pace and granularity no assembly hall can match.
But capability is not destiny. These machines inherit our datasets, our blind spots, our historical harms. Without deliberate governance they will amplify single‑point optimisation—hyper‑targeted persuasion, automated extraction, and a calculus of social control measurable only in engagement metrics. The question, therefore, is not whether we will embed AI into the civic stack, but how we will govern its presence so that it extends, rather than erodes, the commons of complex deliberation.
4. From Capability to Compassionate Form
We do not need smarter hammers; we need gentler hands.
The arrival of generative models gifts us unprecedented capabilities—the power to synthesise, to forecast, to orchestrate complexity at velocity. Yet every new lever of agency deepens the asymmetry between what we can do and what we can truly know. The delta between capacity and comprehension is a fault‑line that can only be crossed through a new behavioural stance: tenderness.
…
6. Re‑Weaving Radical Humanity
Industrial modernity did not merely optimise supply chains; it labourised the self. By accounting for humans as interchangeable productivity units, we internalised the logic of the assembly line: attention sliced into task increments, identity compressed into job description, worth indexed to wage signal. We became the single points our dashboards demanded.
Re‑expanding the human is therefore inseparable from institutional and machine reform. A society capable of complex deliberation must grow citizens who can inhabit multiplicity without fracturing, who can speak from body as well as browser history. This is not a return to some pre‑industrial idyll; it is a forward movement into polyphonic personhood.
A few decades back my teenage son and I approached Las Vegas at night while traveling south on Interstate 15. When the skyline of the city began sparkling into view, the kid said, “Wow. Think of all the money people have made there!” This was a perfect tease for my response: “Dude, everything you see there was paid for by losers.”
The same is true for online sports betting, only more so. How? Soon as you do well, they cut you off. Sources:
Also interesting: While the online sportsbook algorithms are good at spotting gamblers who are smarter than the house, they aren’t so good at spotting and getting help for problem gamblers, which the sportsbook apps are all but (or actually) designed to create—especially out of young people who are quick to rationalize the game of losing money as a form of fun.
Sportsbooks are businesses, and like any business, their primary goal is to make a profit. When a bettor consistently wins, they are essentially taking money from the sportsbook’s bottom line. To mitigate this risk, sportsbooks implement limits on the accounts of profitable bettors. The aim is to encourage more casual, recreational bettors, who are less likely to have an edge and more likely to contribute to the sportsbook’s revenue.
Translation: They want people who throw their money away.
I could go on, but instead suggest you dig those two episodes of Against the Rules.
Oh, and here’s a bet: a generation or few from now (though hopefully sooner), we’ll look back on sports gambling everywhere the same way we look back today on smoking and drunk driving everywhere.
Throwing blogs on the fire. I was thinking about posts as files, blogs as outlines, and outlines as directories. In geek-speak, directories look like this: something/something/something/something/file. In URLs, each something is also called a folder, because that's the frame in which putting files somewhere makes sense. Anyway, I have the top level of a directory of sorts in the menu atop this blog (or at least in the full-width view one gets in a browser on a computer). Those are:
I think it's fair to say that Cluetrain, a quarter century ago, got the world to start calling every topic worth talking about a "conversation." Whether that's true or not (doesn't matter), those are three conversations worth having. Expect more posts on all of them to come soon.
Is there a word for failing to fail? Here's a Hmm:What if Flickr Fails? is getting a sudden burst of readers fourteen years after Flickr didn't fail. Also, according to my blog's stats, this post has had eleven reads.
The livestream features five active microfiche digitization stations, with a close-up view of one in action. Operators feed microfiche cards beneath a high-resolution camera, which captures multiple detailed images of each sheet. Software stitches these images together, after which other team members use automated tools to identify and crop up to 100 individual pages per card. Each page is then processed, made fully text-searchable, and added to the Internet Archive’s public collections—completed with metadata—so that researchers, journalists, and the general public can explore and download them freely through Democracy’s Library.
📅 Live activity occurs Monday–Friday, 7:30am-3:30pm U.S. Pacific Time (GMT+8)—except U.S. holidays—with a second shift coming soon.
How the future might come true. I've re-written most of Four Roads to the Intention Economy, because I keep getting encouraging news about the prospects.
It was slow as mud, but worked full time and I loved it. Anyone else remember Ricochet, the wireless ISP that served the Bay Area for the last few years of the prior millennium?
And, not to be outdone, Bloomington. Here in Indiana, not far west of Columbus, is a stretch of highway 46 called Gnaw Bone. Says at that link that the origin of the name is “obscure.” By the way, Columbus isn’t the only Indiana location sharing its name with a bigger place elsewhere.
So marketing still gets to screw the customer.Tom Fishburne’s latest cartoon shows marketing and customer AI agents trying to outsmart each other. He sources this Bain report, which describes how “the traditional customer discovery funnel” has been upended by customers using AI for “zero click” product discovery methods along their buying “journey.” This means fewer ways for marketers to influence customers along that journey. The solution: “Marketers must adapt by optimizing content for large language models, investing in new performance metrics, and rethinking their digital strategy around a future where the AI agent—not the buyer—is in control.”
The result will more parity across the league. Two predictions. First, while I want the Knicks to win the NBA championship, the Thunder are obviously the best team. Best offense, best defense, deepest bench. But ya never know. Should be good games ahead. Second, NBA salaries for the best players have now maxed out, and we’ll see teams dumping high-salary players outright, or trading expensive good players for affordable mediocre ones. The Boston Celtics will be Exhibit A for all this. They pushed all their chips to the middle of the table this season, going over the “second apron” and paying penalties for it, while five of their chips turned out to be damaged goods. Brown, Porziņģis, Holiday, and Hauser were all injured or slowed by health problems, and Tatum’s achilles injury leaves him out for most or all of next year (while he’s still getting paid). The Suns, Bucks, and Lakers are also in trouble.
What could go right? Charter and Cox are merging. Our home in Santa Barbara is served by Cox. They’re not bad, which is a compliment toward a cable company. But we only use them for Internet. Our “cable” is Dish, and comes off a satellite. Our old apartment in New York was (and presumably still is) served by Charter. Also only for Internet, and also not bad.
A good sign. Ever hear of TCF, or the Transparency & Consent Framework? The TCF is how sites and services can obey the letter of the GDPR’s law, while screwing its spirt. It does that with those annoying consent notices that interrupt your experience of seemingly every site you visit, recording “your choices” God knows where. Well, says here the Belgian Court of Appeals has called bullshit on TCF, ruling those notices illegal after all. Dr. Johnny Ryan, one of the many complainants, said, “Today’s court’s decision shows that the consent system used by Google, Amazon, X, Microsoft, deceives hundreds of millions of Europeans. The tech industry has sought to hide its vast data breach behind sham consent popups. Tech companies turned the GDPR into a daily nuisance rather than a shield for people.”
Still, I like it. For decades, my wife did a lot of work in Asia, where the English names companies often amused her. So when it came time to name a new small U.S. company, she thought the Asian-sounding “International Huge, Inc.” would be good. But it was taken.
Shutdowns of multiple publicly accessible datasets, including the Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database (here’s Texas), on which insurance companies, city planners, climate researchers, emergency folk, and geeks like me all depend.
Will NASA’s FIRMS and its fire detection and mapping satellite services (MODIS, VIIRS) go away, when stuff like that gets jobbed out to SpaceX, BlueOcean, or whatever? Every time I report on a wildfire, I depend on those. Examples.
News about all this seems to be quieter lately. Did the cuts happen? If so, did they do what DOGE promised, and just cut fat and costs? Are they done with it?